Breathless predictions of doom for the D.C. real estate market erupted on social media news outlets in recent weeks, tying the roller coaster news cycle to a flood of D.C. residents already packing and moving away. The implied result: A glut of new properties on the market with few buyers, which will soon send home prices crashing to the basement before we hit June.
Now, it could happen. Real estate markets often are volatile, and terrible things have happened in the past. But taking a screen shot of home value estimates (in one case) and cherry-picking some dramatic numbers do not indicate long-term trends—or trends at all.
For starters, real data about the real estate market typically lags months behind what’s happening today. If you want to see data of a massive migration of home sellers from the D.C. area, particularly as a result of recent administration changes, you’re going to have to wait until late in the year at the earliest. It simply doesn’t happen that fast.
It also depends on how you’re looking at the numbers. A quick review of D.C. Metro region real estate statistics from MarketStats by Showingtime, which examines data by BrightMLS, our local multiple listing service, can show some striking statistics depending on how the data is presented in a given story or report.
The latest data available through MarketStats is from January. For the D.C. Metro region, 2,732 units sold in January—up 10.6 percent from January 2024. The numbers were similar for units sold in January 2023. But not January 2022, where the region recorded 3,859 units sold.
In addition, there were 6,054 active listings in the D.C. region last month, compared to 4,930 in January 2024—a 22 percent jump. But to illustrate the more natural changing nature of home sales, active listings in January 2024 were down 4.8 percent from January 2023, when the number of active listings totaled 5,177. In January 2021, active D.C. region listings totaled 6,366—down a whopping 23.6 percent from the 8,337 active listings in January 2020. Compared to last month, active listings in January were 58 percent lower than in January 2020.
So things might not be as some of the panic inducing reports might suggest.
One specific reality is that when looking at inventory, we are in the midst of a decades-long housing shortage. The National Association of Realtors noted that construction would have to rise to 1.5 times the historic average to keep pace in their 2021 report Housing is Critical Infrastructure: Social and Economic Benefits of Building More. With interest rates still relatively high, it could take years—probably decades—for supply and demand to balance.
This is just anecdotal, but in two recent contracts we’ve submitted for clients, one contained nine competing offers and the other included 11. A lot of buyers are out there if you’re interested in selling, and if interest rates drop in the coming year, there is likely a mass of additional buyers waiting on the sidelines to jump in when interest rates hit a certain point.
It’s never bad to look at home selling statistics to determine your willingness to either list your home or venture out to buy one. But always take a sober look at realities surrounding the statistics you look at. In a world of instant news and social media influencers scraping for some extra clicks, a lot of reality can be lost in the shuffle.
If you want a leg up on the other buyers in the market, get a copy of our book D.C. Region Real Estate’s Essential Guide for Smart Buyers. You can pick it up at Amazon, or contact us at Move@DCRegionRealEstate.com for a complimentary copy.
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