No one can tell you with certainty when we’re at the top of the market. The best we can do is follow trends as closely as possible and then look at certain indicators on the horizon that might tip us off to where we’re going next. But if D.C. region home sellers ever wanted a period of time when prices were up, inventory low, and buyers stumbling over themselves to beat out the next bidder, this is it.
Though there are rumblings that interest rates might increase, mortgage rates are still low, which has encouraged buyers to get out there and buy while money is cheap. On the slightly speculative side, a lot of buyers likely waited out the pandemic last year and decided to jump into the market this year—maybe many more buyers than would be anticipated in a typical year.
The result has been somewhat of a perfect storm for sellers—and we’re talking throughout the region.
As we’ve seen for the past several months, some of the real powerhouses in sales and price increases have been suburban counties surrounding D.C. Montgomery County saw the biggest average price jump in April over April 2020, with prices up 14.3 percent. Prince William County was neck-and-neck with a 14 percent average price increase over the same period. Prince Georges prices were no slouch either, 11.7 percent higher last month than April 2020.
Closer to the district, prices were up as well. Washington, D.C. average home sale prices were up 9.2 percent last month compared to April 2020. Similarly, Alexandria City prices jumped about 10 percent, and Fairfax County prices increased 9.7 percent.
The only part of the region that was a bit down was Arlington County, with average prices about 1 percent lower than April 2020 last month. It’s a trend we’ve seen in Arlington over the past several months, with average prices hovering up or down a percent or two here and there. However, February prices in Arlington were down more than 9 percent over February 2020, so we may be seeing a bit of a steady, if not slightly downward average price trend there. (Keep in mind, however, the sales volume in Arlington is typically quite a bit lower than some of the larger counties like Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince William, and Prince Georges, so the swings in sales figures can be a little wider on a month-to-month basis.)
Taking a closer look at Prince William, it’s simply on fire. The average sale price last month was $503,741. At the peak in the mid-2000s the county experienced average monthly sale prices in the mid-$400,000 range, but this could be an all-time monthly high. Further evidence of the hot market in Prince William is that average days on market in April was six, compared to 14 days a year ago.
Montgomery County is moving fast as well, with average days on market at just 16—down from 24 days in April 2020. Fairfax County days on market averaged 12—down from 14 days in April 2020. And Prince Georges days on market dropped from 29 to 13 over the same period.
With prices still up, days on market softened every so slightly in the closer-in locales last month. Washington, D.C., days on market average was 23, compared to 24 in April 2020. Arlington County days on market jumped from 12 to 17, and Alexandria City crept up to 19 from 12 days over the same period.
Still, the seller’s market is in full swing, and we continue to see a highly competitive atmosphere when homes are priced right. As we move into summer, the prospect of more homes on the market could provide a bit of relief for buyers oftentimes competing for multiple properties as they search for one after the other. Possible interest rate increases and higher inflation on the horizon also may influence buyers to stay in the game and lock in properties while money is cheap.
Just remember, it’s an ever-changing landscape, so whatever your homebuying plans may be—selling while the market is hot or buying while interest rates are low—keep us in mind if you want someone in your corner to navigate this our extremely competitive market.
Christopher Prawdzik and his wife Angela Logomasini are licensed Realtors® with Samson Properties in Alexandria and are members of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® Top Producer’s Club. Operating as D.C. Region Real Estate, they serve the Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Maryland real estate market and offer comprehensive real estate services, including 4½% full-service listings.
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